Don't worry too much about the way the board works at first - most of the factory-driven non-risklike stuff doesn't really kick in until the end-game.

You'll be fine if you play as if the shields are continents (they are). Collect all of one type and get a standard bonus of 1/per each shield (These are your vassals).

Best is to go for the low hanging fruit at first. Single shield continents put bread on the table, and though it's not all that uncommon to see someone try to sneak a 2-bagger out of the blocks, be careful because it can backfire if you don't succeed.

One Fortify may seem like not enough on the surface - but the bonuses start to accumulate pretty quickly, and it won't take you long to figure out that back to attack makes a huge difference when you use your one fortify move 'inside' your turn.

After a round or two, your 'House Markers' (the squares on the right) will start lighting up. Then the race will be on. Collect those house markers until you have enough support (from their dukes, earls, lords, nobles, etc..) to make a play for the crown.

The Mercenary box is a 'shared' box that is only your color on your turn, so do NOT put any units on Mercenaries until the very end of the game. You only use the mercenaries ON THE SAME TURN that you go for the crown. You can't build them up.

If you put your units in the mercenaries and go for the crown, then realize you probably won't be able to take the crown. Don't leave units in mercenaries box, fire them into the crown, which will always replenish to 50 so the next person can't use them.

Notice that that once you control a larger house marker (one with 2+ vassals), it's harder to steal because a single player needs to capture all of a its related shields on the board in order to steal it from you.

However, though it may be difficult to steal a marker, you can still weaken an opponent's house by capturing just one of its shields, because (just like in WarGear Warfare) the vassal (continental) bonus is only awarded when all of a house's shields are held. The markers help you win the game, but vassals play a big role in regular map play.

Cashed cards are usually worth 12 or more before it starts to become a good idea to go for the crown, especially in games with 4 or more players. Once you think you can muster enough support to take the crown, (this includes units on your house markers + your vassal bonuses + per/territory bonus + cards cashed), you simply attack the crown, preferably with everything you have - by purchasing mercenaries with your bonuses.

Best is to start by using up your small house markers first. That way, once you take the crown, you can fortify your largest remaining stack to the crown, then go “back to attack” to complete the job of eliminating all pretenders.

As you can see, mercenaries play a big role in your efforts to ascend to the throne. Obviously, you will significantly increase your chances of being successful if you attack the crown on a turn when you cash your cards. But of course, everyone else also has cards, so there's an implied pressure to go for the crown maybe a tad earlier than you'd prefer.

Here's a guesstimate:

Attacking with 45 units wins 30% of the time.
Attacking with 50 wins 45% of the time.
Attacking with 58 wins 55% of the time.
Attacking with 65 wins 70% of the time.

I used a Risk dice calculator to make a simulated run at the crown using a reasonable mix of mercenaries and markers and known odds to compensate for the disadvantaged smaller stacks.

If you are the strongest, you don't want to wait too long, or a lesser opponent will gamble on happy dice and steal the crown from right in front of you. On the other hand, you don't want to try too early and waste all of your bonuses, because unless your lead is considerable, you will likely be overtaken by the field. Conversely, if you are behind and feel that the leader is going to pull the trigger with a strong likelihood of winning, it might make sense to take that 25% shot.

If you're interested in how these numbers were derived, you can check out the analysis here.

These numbers assume that you are going in with 20-30 Mercenaries.

• Subtract 5 to determine a 75% success rate
• Add 2 to determine a 50% success rate
• Add 9 to determine a 25% success rate.

With more than 30 mercenaries, you can add 1 more OR subtract 1 less.

Ignore the 3 and 4-spots, and calculate for cards with 2 vassals or more.

• Subtract 2 to determine a 75% rate.
• Count at face value for a 50% rate.
• Add 2 for a 25% success rate.

Finally, add in your last expected kills for your single vassal markers at the rate you're looking for..

• Count 1 for a 75% rate
• Count 2 for a 50% rate
• Count 3 for a 25% rate

Back to the War Of The Roses home page.
Also End Game Analysis and Probabilities.