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    Standard Member btilly
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    To complement the luck score (how many troops you are ahead/behind average based on your rolls) add a luck percentile, that estimates your odds of having done worse.

    As discussed in http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/3055p1/How_unlucky I'd be willing to supply code in your language of choice for being told the dice involved in a given attack roll in your format of choice, and returning the mean and variance for the losses.  (By attack roll I mean one roll of attackers/defenders, and then total up the losses.)

    If we sum the variance up over all combat rolls in the game, that gives you the total variance.  Its square root is the standard deviation.  Divide the luck score by the standard deviations to get the z-score.  Look that up in a standard table of normals and you get the percentile.  (There are libraries already built for the normal table lookup in most languages.)


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    Brigadier General M57 M57 is offline now
    Standard Member M57
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    I almost always prefer designer features to be at the top of Tom's to-do list, but this one give the luck stats relevance, and makes them more useful for both players and designers.

    https://sites.google.com/site/m57sengine/home

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    Standard Member btilly
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    M57 wrote:

    I almost always prefer designer features to be at the top of Tom's to-do list, but this one give the luck stats relevance, and makes them more useful for both players and designers.

    With just a little more work, you could calculate the strength of the correlation between victory and the luck percentile.  Which would tell you how much of a given board is skill, and how much is good combat rolls.


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    Brigadier General M57 M57 is offline now
    Standard Member M57
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    As has been pointed out in other threads, there are so many factors that influence victory. In fact, there are cases where an inverse relationship could probably be made for victory vs. luck. Take for instance games with multiple players where the player who is strongest out of the blocks tends to get picked on.  On the other hand, there are boards where early luck is clearly desirable, and end-game clean-up luck effectively becomes nothing more than garbage stats.  While interesting, I question how much value such a chart might have.

    Regardless, a straight luck percentile stat with a handy-dandy range slider would let players isolate scenarios, giving them the option of analyzing in whatever context they perceive appropriate.

    https://sites.google.com/site/m57sengine/home
    Edited Mon 18th Feb 11:51 [history]

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    Standard Member Hugh
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    +1 to this idea.


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    Standard Member ratsy
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    Big +1 from me too.

    "I shall pass this but once, any good I can do, or kindness I can show; let me do it now. Let me not difer nor neglect it, for I shall not pass this way again." -Stephen Grellet

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