Abishai wrote:

You are right A-Team. This site is being run by an elite class of reptilians that wants to keep you regular standard humans in their place. In order to gain favor with us you have to sign over your soul, or pay $10 every few months. We noticed you were doing quite well in wargear warfare 1v1 and even broke 2000 GR. Some of the reptilian elites were not pleased so we decided to predetermine dozens of your following games by giving you the 2nd seat a lot and by impeding your rolls. We also do not take kindly to vocal opinions against the elite so your acount will soon be deleted and so will this thread. Or we will leave everything be and play coy. Over time everything will simmer down, just the way we like it.

Darnit! Stop drooling on the Keyboard...

A-TEAM wrote:

Thanks. I appreciate the comments, the jokes, the rebukes, the advice, etc etc.  Just trying to understand what the heck is going on. I hate to lose. I really hate to lose. That is all I have done, well not initially but once I settled in, that is all I have done. So either I stink which is why I will continue to lose and or I am regularly unlucky which too is why i will continue to lose. So, it is clear now, Everything is on the up and up... therefore I suck. My wins when they occur are due to lucky rolls, and my dumb luck to be able to tie my shoe laces every now and then. 

Your GR is 1260, so you're not doing too bad.

Your H-Rating is 54% you're not doing too bad.

M57 wrote:

Your H-Rating is 54% you're not doing too bad.

Like I said, seems like you're an average player...at least on this site. There's nothing wrong with it...though it does take some getting used to. Playing a real board game at home with friends and family, you're probably quite good and win often, like most of us on this site, but here you're among players of the same or better caliber.

AfroDaby wrote:

M57 wrote:

Your H-Rating is 54% you're not doing too bad.

Like I said, seems like you're an average player...at least on this site. There's nothing wrong with it...though it does take some getting used to. Playing a real board game at home with friends and family, you're probably quite good and win often, like most of us on this site, but here you're among players of the same or better caliber.

This sounds so fatalist though.  You need to add a "for now" at the end of that.

Hey, A-TEAM. I invited you to a couple games where dice don't affect the outcome as much:

http://www.wargear.net/games/join/451538

http://www.wargear.net/games/join/451540

Just to be on the safe side you should drop a few at [email protected]

It can do wonders for a close game. Don't forget to email tom at [email protected] to let him know which player to apply it to (that would be 'Korrun' in this case).

Good luck. ;) You'll need it...

@A-TEAM Koran may be joking around, but there's a gem of advice in his post.  Paying for premium membership doesn't technically give you any advantage over your opponents, but the analytics like territory and troop counts make things a whole lot easier. Unless you are a card counting savant with an air-tight memory, you will doubtless play better with a  Premium Membership.

Ozyman wrote:

AfroDaby wrote:

M57 wrote:

Your H-Rating is 54% you're not doing too bad.

Like I said, seems like you're an average player...at least on this site. There's nothing wrong with it...though it does take some getting used to. Playing a real board game at home with friends and family, you're probably quite good and win often, like most of us on this site, but here you're among players of the same or better caliber.

 

This sounds so fatalist though.  You need to add a "for now" at the end of that.

Yes. Definitely for now...always room for improvement.

... i don't understand. is this all a practical joke?

A-TEAM wrote:

... i don't understand. is this all a practical joke?

Not all of it. ;P

Actually, very little of it.  As you can see, there's no questioning Tom's integrity - so your protestations pose little threat.  Yeah, you needed to be put in your place, and we may have had a little fun doing it,  but this is not a vindictive community.  You are welcome to stay and play, (hell, we can't stop you) but just be aware that a certain level of civility has been cultivated on these forums.

A-TEAM wrote:

... i don't understand. is this all a practical joke?

Crazy isn't it?  You expected a fight and found reasonable people looking to engage in an even-tempered discussion.  This really is a great place to play.  If you'd branch out of the two-player lightening games on the basic board and you'll find a bunch of great people who just like to play games together.  (Not that those guys aren't fun people to, but there is so much more to this site.)

btw I looked at a few of your games.  The one thing I saw is that once you start losing you start taking low probability attacks.  That is called for sometimes, but you could be more judicious in choosing when to do so.

Cramchakle wrote:

Gods, threads like this make me wish I was the kind of person to abuse power.

That's a paddlin'.

"... i don't understand. is this all a practical joke?"

My statement was not intended in response to any comment. I welcome them all. Period. I really was not looking for a fight. i meant it when i said i wanted to understand.

the comment comes because in the last 24 hours my "luck" has turned tremendously. in fact my luck has turned so favorably it is actually unbelievable. players who have consistently destroyed me for weeks now all of the sudden are losing and surrendering... In some cases they surrender even before really needing to only to come back join another one of my games and repeat the same action.

I meant it wholly when i said "... i don't understand. is this all a practical joke?" i may sound idiotic and crazy and you all can tell me that i do not understand statistics and probability... so be it. it is just weird.

Regression. What does it mean?

Cramchakle? what is your point? give it to me plainly.

If I'm not mistaken, it's an allusion to a statement made by a former US president in an effort wrangle himself out of having to answer a specific yes or no question.   Am I close?

A-TEAM wrote:

Cramchakle? what is your point? give it to me plainly.

He means for you to look up the word regression!  We have the googles to do that usually, but, if you want it written out and put into context... regression means to return to a former state.  Statistically speaking it can mean to return to the average or expected outcome given enough occurrences, I think, though I'm not statistician!  In your context you said your dice were bad, then good.  So, on average, you are regressing to the norm, to average.  I think another way of putting it is 'the law of averages' whereby statistically speaking if you keep going along leaning one way, it must lean the other way at some point!  Though, again, I'll give a disclaimer that I don't do much in the way of statistics.

I know a bit more but I am not the expert either - I do know this: past rolls have no effect on future rolls.  If you get a streak of back luck whether your next streak is good or bad is equally likely.  Though the larger your data set (properly chosen) the more likely the averages you get will be closer to the true probability.

Us humans have a deep urge to ascribe stories to random events and have very faulty memories.  A player that wants to think the dice are against him will remember vividly the 10v3 he lost and ignore the string of 5v2's he wins.  Then it is possible they get frustrated and take a string of low-probability attacks (e.g. 3v2) and get more frustrated when they lose.  (Which I saw in one of A-TEAM's games)

I remember a player losing a game when he did an 8v1 to eliminate another player and failed to take the territory.  That happens 0.03815% of the time.  It happens. 

http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/3755/Bad_beat_page

Cramchakle wrote:

Regression. What does it mean?

Pretty sure this is a statistics joke about the concept "regression to the mean'".  Meaning sometimes your luck is good, sometimes bad, but if you take a big enough sample, it comes out average.  

In A-Team's case, it means he had terrible luck a while, and now is having good luck; both are just statistical flukes in a system that is essentially random.

Anybody want to do A-Team the favor of watching a bunch of his games and providing a strategy critique?  Mine would be mainly, don't do 2-player games, because there is less strategy involved.  Try three, four, and more!