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--- general:luck_stats [2020/11/23 13:13]
M57
+++ general:luck_stats [2022/09/15 01:05] (current)
Ozyman [Relevant forum threads]
@@ Line 64: / Line 64: @@
 Given the same number of opportunities, both of the above events will happen about 4% of the time. Clearly, a Luck Stat of -3 can be just as //unlikely//, and therefore just as unlucky as Luck Stat of -21.
-**Case 3** - If you were to win that stack of 48 (from Case 2), and ended up with 18 units to spare, you probably wouldn't blink. You might even be tempted to think you had better than average luck. Yet, your Luck stat would be -3.
+**Case 3** - If you were to win that stack of 48 (from Case 2), and ended up with 18 units to spare, you probably wouldn't blink. You might even be tempted to think you had better than average luck. Yet, your Luck stat would be -3 and fall right in the middle of the 15-21 bin of the histogram below.
-After winning you are likely to end up with exactly 18 units ~3.7% of the time, and you are only likely to end up with the "central tendency" of 21 units only ~4.1% of the time. A quick look at the graph below and you can see that you will win with somewhere between 15 and 25 units left over more than 50% of the time.
 {{ :general:60_v_48_binned.png |}}
-The above histogram suggests that you will win and end up with between 15 and 28 (Luck Stats from -6 to +7) units about half the time when attacking a stack of 48 units with a stack of 60 units. In fact, to end up with an overall Luck Stat of -3 in this type of battle scenario could hardly be seen as being anything other than pretty average luck.
+The above histogram suggests that you will win and end up with between 15 and 28 (Luck Stats from -6 to +7) units more than half the time when attacking a stack of 48 units with a stack of 60 units. In fact, to end up with an overall Luck Stat of -3 in this type of battle scenario could hardly be considered as being anything other than pretty average luck.
 //(The probabilities given for the "cases" used in this discussion were derived from various (and typical) samples of 20,000 simulations each using Ozyman's WarGear Simulator.
@@ Line 79: / Line 78: @@
   * http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/2173/Luck_Cumulative_Chart_Wargear_Warfare_1_v_1_games_SquintGnome
   * http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/3055p1/How_unlucky
+  * https://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/167p1/Ive_seen_enoughthe_RandomLuck_Talk
+  * https://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/1324p1/Bad_dice_support_group
+  * https://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/3413/Luck_in_Risk

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