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general:dice_probabilities [2013/08/25 12:09]
M57 		general:dice_probabilities [2013/10/26 09:33] (current)
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 ====== Dice ====== ====== Dice ======
  
-====Odds for Versus-Dice==== +====Odds for Turn-Based Games==== 
- +  
-A useful tool for calculating odds developed by [[wargear_personalities:bio:ozyman|Ozyman]]: http://prestopnik.com/wargear/+[[http://prestopnik.com/wargear/ 
 +|A website that allows you to calculate odds and simulate rolls]]((developed by [[wargear_personalities:bio:ozyman|Ozyman]]))
  
 ====Estimating SimulGear Probabilities==== ====Estimating SimulGear Probabilities====
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 The easiest way to understand SimulGear is to imagine that it rolls one 100-sided dice for each attacker and defender. The easiest way to understand SimulGear is to imagine that it rolls one 100-sided dice for each attacker and defender.
 +Each border is assigned an Attacker and Defender Percentage.
 +
 + **Attacker Percentage** - For each attacker dice rolled above the //Attacker Percentage//, one defender is killed.
 +
 + **Defender Percentage** - For each defender dice rolled above the //Defender Percentage//, one attacker is killed. 
  
- **Attack Dice** - For each attacker dice rolled above the Attacker % one defender is killed and each defender dice rolled above the Defender % one attacker is killed. +Example: The border between two territories is set to 60% for Attacker and 75% for Defender. 10 units Attack to a territory with 8 units defending. 
 +  * Ten (10) 100-sided dice are rolled for the Attacker. For every dice that is 40 or greater, one Defending unit is killed.  (100 - 60% = 40) 
 +  * Eight (8) 100-sided dice for the Defender. For every dice that is 25 or greater, one Attacking unit is killed. (100 - 75% = 25)
  
-For example, if Attack is set to 60% and Defend is set to 75%, if an order is for Attack 10 units to territory with Defender of 10 units, then the system rolls ten (10) 100 sided dice for the Attack and for every dice that is 40 or greater will kill one Defender unit, the system also rolls ten (10) 100 sided dice for the Defender and for every dice that is 25 or greater will kill one Attacking unit. 
-  ..the above sentences are very difficult to understand. 
  
-> +It is //**important to note**// that the Attack % and Defend % is not a guaranteed kill % but instead an average kill %. In the example, the Attacker/Defender could actually kill anywhere from 0-100% depending on the outcome of the dice rolls.
->Note: The Attack % and Defend % is not a guaranteed kill % but instead an average kill %. In the example, the Attacker/Defender could actually kill anywhere from 0-100% depending on the outcome of the dice rolls.+
  
 The final note is important to keep in mind, as multiplying the number of attacking units by the Attack % will give you only an //expected value// (EV) for how many defending units you would eliminate. The EV tells you the average of all the attack outcomes if you replicated this attack thousands of times. The EV is useful for making a quick estimation of how many units you will need, at minimum, on a given attack or defense. However,  it is not necessarily a safe bet to always base your orders on the EV since it does not give you the the probability of successfully conquering a territory if you attack X defenders with Y units. The final note is important to keep in mind, as multiplying the number of attacking units by the Attack % will give you only an //expected value// (EV) for how many defending units you would eliminate. The EV tells you the average of all the attack outcomes if you replicated this attack thousands of times. The EV is useful for making a quick estimation of how many units you will need, at minimum, on a given attack or defense. However,  it is not necessarily a safe bet to always base your orders on the EV since it does not give you the the probability of successfully conquering a territory if you attack X defenders with Y units.
general/dice_probabilities.1377446987.txt.gz · Last modified: 2013/10/26 09:33 (external edit)

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