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boards:war_of_the_roses:strategies_and_tips [2013/08/14 18:38] M57 [A More Detailed Way to Calculate your Chances of Winning] |
boards:war_of_the_roses:strategies_and_tips [2014/12/20 06:36] (current) M57 [A More Detailed Way to Calculate your Chances of Winning] |
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Best is to go for the low hanging fruit at first. Single shield continents put bread on the table, and though it's not all that uncommon to see someone try to sneak a 2-bagger out of the blocks, be careful because it can backfire if you don't succeed. | Best is to go for the low hanging fruit at first. Single shield continents put bread on the table, and though it's not all that uncommon to see someone try to sneak a 2-bagger out of the blocks, be careful because it can backfire if you don't succeed. | ||
- | One Fortify may seem like not enough on the surface - but the bonuses start to accumulate pretty quickly, and it won't take you long to figure out that back to attack makes a huge difference when you use it ' | + | One Fortify may seem like not enough on the surface - but the bonuses start to accumulate pretty quickly, and it won't take you long to figure out that back to attack makes a huge difference when you use your one fortify move ' |
After a round or two, your 'House Markers' | After a round or two, your 'House Markers' | ||
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The Mercenary box is a ' | The Mercenary box is a ' | ||
- | If someone leaves | + | If you put your units in the mercenaries and go for the crown, then realize |
=== Protecting Your Shields === | === Protecting Your Shields === | ||
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===== How To Win ===== | ===== How To Win ===== | ||
- | Cashed cards are usually worth 15 or more before it starts to become a good idea to go for the crown, especially in games with 4 or more players. Once you think you can muster enough support to take the crown, (this includes units on your house markers + your vassal bonuses + per/ | + | Cashed cards are usually worth 12 or more before it starts to become a good idea to go for the crown, especially in games with 4 or more players. Once you think you can muster enough support to take the crown, (this includes units on your house markers + your vassal bonuses + per/ |
Best is to start by using up your small house markers first. That way, once you take the crown, you can fortify your largest remaining stack to the crown, then go "back to attack" | Best is to start by using up your small house markers first. That way, once you take the crown, you can fortify your largest remaining stack to the crown, then go "back to attack" | ||
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As you can see, mercenaries play a big role in your efforts to ascend to the throne. Obviously, you will significantly increase your chances of being successful if you attack the crown on a turn when you cash your cards. But of course, everyone else also has cards, so there' | As you can see, mercenaries play a big role in your efforts to ascend to the throne. Obviously, you will significantly increase your chances of being successful if you attack the crown on a turn when you cash your cards. But of course, everyone else also has cards, so there' | ||
- | Here's a conservative | + | Here's a guesstimate: |
- | **Attacking with 45 units wins 28% of the time.\\ | + | **Attacking with 45 units wins 30% of the time.\\ |
- | Attacking with 50 wins 40% of the time.\\ | + | Attacking with 50 wins 45% of the time.\\ |
- | Attacking with 58 wins 50% of the time.\\ | + | Attacking with 58 wins 55% of the time.\\ |
- | Attacking with 65 wins 65% of the time.**\\ | + | Attacking with 65 wins 70% of the time.**\\ |
I used a Risk dice calculator to make a simulated run at the crown using a reasonable mix of mercenaries and markers and known odds to compensate for the disadvantaged smaller stacks. | I used a Risk dice calculator to make a simulated run at the crown using a reasonable mix of mercenaries and markers and known odds to compensate for the disadvantaged smaller stacks. | ||
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* Add 9 to determine a 25% success rate. | * Add 9 to determine a 25% success rate. | ||
- | With more than 30 mercenaries, | + | With more than 30 mercenaries, |
=== Next, Your House Markers === | === Next, Your House Markers === |