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boards:war_of_the_roses:strategies_and_tips [2013/08/14 08:52]
M57 old revision restored (2013/08/14 08:49) 		boards:war_of_the_roses:strategies_and_tips [2014/12/20 06:36] (current)
M57 [A More Detailed Way to Calculate your Chances of Winning]
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 Best is to go for the low hanging fruit at first. Single shield continents put bread on the table, and though it's not all that uncommon to see someone try to sneak a 2-bagger out of the blocks, be careful because it can backfire if you don't succeed. Best is to go for the low hanging fruit at first. Single shield continents put bread on the table, and though it's not all that uncommon to see someone try to sneak a 2-bagger out of the blocks, be careful because it can backfire if you don't succeed.
  
-One Fortify may seem like not enough on the surface - but the bonuses start to accumulate pretty quickly, and it won't take you long to figure out that back to attack makes a huge difference when you use it 'inside' your turn.+One Fortify may seem like not enough on the surface - but the bonuses start to accumulate pretty quickly, and it won't take you long to figure out that back to attack makes a huge difference when you use your one fortify move 'inside' your turn.
  
 After a round or two, your 'House Markers' (the squares on the right) will start lighting up.  Then the race will be on. Collect those house markers until you have enough support (from their dukes, earls, lords, nobles, etc..) to make a play for the crown. After a round or two, your 'House Markers' (the squares on the right) will start lighting up.  Then the race will be on. Collect those house markers until you have enough support (from their dukes, earls, lords, nobles, etc..) to make a play for the crown.
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 The Mercenary box is a 'shared' box that is only your color on your turn, so do NOT put any units on Mercenaries until the very end of the game. You only use the mercenaries ON THE SAME TURN that you go for the crown. You can't build them up. The Mercenary box is a 'shared' box that is only your color on your turn, so do NOT put any units on Mercenaries until the very end of the game. You only use the mercenaries ON THE SAME TURN that you go for the crown. You can't build them up.
  
-If someone leaves units in mercenaries, and you can't or don't want to use them, just fire them into the crown, which will always replenish to 50, so the next person can't use them.+If you put your units in the mercenaries and go for the crown, then realize you probably won't be able to take the crown. Don't leave units in mercenaries box, fire them into the crown, which will always replenish to 50 so the next person can't use them.
  
 === Protecting Your Shields === === Protecting Your Shields ===
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 ===== How To Win ===== ===== How To Win =====
  
-Cashed cards are usually worth 15 or more before it starts to become a good idea to go for the crown, especially in games with 4 or more players. Once you think you can muster enough support to take the crown, (this includes units on your house markers + your vassal bonuses + per/territory bonus + cards cashed), you simply attack the crown, preferably with everything you have - by purchasing mercenaries with your bonuses.+Cashed cards are usually worth 12 or more before it starts to become a good idea to go for the crown, especially in games with 4 or more players. Once you think you can muster enough support to take the crown, (this includes units on your house markers + your vassal bonuses + per/territory bonus + cards cashed), you simply attack the crown, preferably with everything you have - by purchasing mercenaries with your bonuses.
  
 Best is to start by using up your small house markers first. That way, once you take the crown, you can fortify your largest remaining stack to the crown, then go "back to attack" to complete the job of eliminating all pretenders. Best is to start by using up your small house markers first. That way, once you take the crown, you can fortify your largest remaining stack to the crown, then go "back to attack" to complete the job of eliminating all pretenders.
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 As you can see, mercenaries play a big role in your efforts to ascend to the throne. Obviously, you will significantly increase your chances of being successful if you attack the crown on a turn when you cash your cards. But of course, everyone else also has cards, so there's an implied pressure to go for the crown maybe a tad earlier than you'd prefer.  As you can see, mercenaries play a big role in your efforts to ascend to the throne. Obviously, you will significantly increase your chances of being successful if you attack the crown on a turn when you cash your cards. But of course, everyone else also has cards, so there's an implied pressure to go for the crown maybe a tad earlier than you'd prefer. 
  
-My best guess at this point:+Here's a guesstimate:
  
-**Attacking with 45 units wins 28% of the time.\\  +**Attacking with 45 units wins 30% of the time.\\  
-Attacking with 50 wins 40% of the time.\\  +Attacking with 50 wins 45% of the time.\\  
-Attacking with 58 wins 50% of the time.\\  +Attacking with 58 wins 55% of the time.\\  
-Attacking with 65 wins 65% of the time.**\\ +Attacking with 65 wins 70% of the time.**\\ 
  
 I used a Risk dice calculator to make a simulated run at the crown using a reasonable mix of mercenaries and markers and known odds to compensate for the disadvantaged smaller stacks. I used a Risk dice calculator to make a simulated run at the crown using a reasonable mix of mercenaries and markers and known odds to compensate for the disadvantaged smaller stacks.
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   * Subtract 5 to determine a 75% success rate   * Subtract 5 to determine a 75% success rate
   * Add 2 to determine a 50% success rate   * Add 2 to determine a 50% success rate
-  * Add 9 to determine an 25% success rate.+  * Add 9 to determine a 25% success rate.
  
-With more than 30 mercenaries, you can add 1 more and subtract 1 less.+With more than 30 mercenaries, you can add 1 more OR subtract 1 less.
  
 === Next, Your House Markers === === Next, Your House Markers ===
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 Ignore the 3 and 4-spots, and **__calculate for cards with 2 vassals or more__**. Ignore the 3 and 4-spots, and **__calculate for cards with 2 vassals or more__**.
  
-  * Subtract 2 to determine a 75% rate +  * Subtract 2 to determine a 75% rate. 
-  * Count at face value for a 50% rate +  * Count at face value for a 50% rate. 
-  * Add 2 to determine a 25% kill rate.+  * Add 2 for a 25% success rate.
  
 Finally, add in your last expected kills for your single vassal markers at the rate you're looking for.. Finally, add in your last expected kills for your single vassal markers at the rate you're looking for..
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 ---- ----
-Back to the [[Boards::War Of The Roses::War Of The Roses]] home page.+Back to the [[Boards::War Of The Roses::War Of The Roses]] home page. \\  
 +Also [[Boards:War Of The Roses:End Game Analysis and Probabilities]]. 
boards/war_of_the_roses/strategies_and_tips.1376484779.txt.gz · Last modified: 2013/10/26 09:33 (external edit)

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