This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision | ||
boards:war_of_the_roses:strategies_and_tips [2013/08/14 08:43] M57 [A More Detailed Way to Calculate your Chances of Winning] |
boards:war_of_the_roses:strategies_and_tips [2014/12/20 06:36] (current) M57 [A More Detailed Way to Calculate your Chances of Winning] |
||
---|---|---|---|
Line 12: | Line 12: | ||
Best is to go for the low hanging fruit at first. Single shield continents put bread on the table, and though it's not all that uncommon to see someone try to sneak a 2-bagger out of the blocks, be careful because it can backfire if you don't succeed. | Best is to go for the low hanging fruit at first. Single shield continents put bread on the table, and though it's not all that uncommon to see someone try to sneak a 2-bagger out of the blocks, be careful because it can backfire if you don't succeed. | ||
- | One Fortify may seem like not enough on the surface - but the bonuses start to accumulate pretty quickly, and it won't take you long to figure out that back to attack makes a huge difference when you use it ' | + | One Fortify may seem like not enough on the surface - but the bonuses start to accumulate pretty quickly, and it won't take you long to figure out that back to attack makes a huge difference when you use your one fortify move ' |
After a round or two, your 'House Markers' | After a round or two, your 'House Markers' | ||
Line 20: | Line 20: | ||
The Mercenary box is a ' | The Mercenary box is a ' | ||
- | If someone leaves | + | If you put your units in the mercenaries and go for the crown, then realize |
=== Protecting Your Shields === | === Protecting Your Shields === | ||
Line 30: | Line 30: | ||
===== How To Win ===== | ===== How To Win ===== | ||
- | Cashed cards are usually worth 15 or more before it starts to become a good idea to go for the crown, especially in games with 4 or more players. Once you think you can muster enough support to take the crown, (this includes units on your house markers + your vassal bonuses + per/ | + | Cashed cards are usually worth 12 or more before it starts to become a good idea to go for the crown, especially in games with 4 or more players. Once you think you can muster enough support to take the crown, (this includes units on your house markers + your vassal bonuses + per/ |
Best is to start by using up your small house markers first. That way, once you take the crown, you can fortify your largest remaining stack to the crown, then go "back to attack" | Best is to start by using up your small house markers first. That way, once you take the crown, you can fortify your largest remaining stack to the crown, then go "back to attack" | ||
Line 38: | Line 38: | ||
As you can see, mercenaries play a big role in your efforts to ascend to the throne. Obviously, you will significantly increase your chances of being successful if you attack the crown on a turn when you cash your cards. But of course, everyone else also has cards, so there' | As you can see, mercenaries play a big role in your efforts to ascend to the throne. Obviously, you will significantly increase your chances of being successful if you attack the crown on a turn when you cash your cards. But of course, everyone else also has cards, so there' | ||
- | My best guess at this point: | + | Here's a guesstimate: |
- | **Attacking with 45 units wins 28% of the time.\\ | + | **Attacking with 45 units wins 30% of the time.\\ |
- | Attacking with 50 wins 40% of the time.\\ | + | Attacking with 50 wins 45% of the time.\\ |
- | Attacking with 58 wins 50% of the time.\\ | + | Attacking with 58 wins 55% of the time.\\ |
- | Attacking with 65 wins 65% of the time.**\\ | + | Attacking with 65 wins 70% of the time.**\\ |
I used a Risk dice calculator to make a simulated run at the crown using a reasonable mix of mercenaries and markers and known odds to compensate for the disadvantaged smaller stacks. | I used a Risk dice calculator to make a simulated run at the crown using a reasonable mix of mercenaries and markers and known odds to compensate for the disadvantaged smaller stacks. | ||
Line 57: | Line 57: | ||
=== Count your mercenaries first === | === Count your mercenaries first === | ||
- | Roughly speaking | + | These numbers assume that you are going in with 20-30 Mercenaries. |
- | * subtract 5 to determine a 75% success rate | + | |
- | * add 2 to determine a 50% success rate | + | |
- | * add 9 to determine an 25% success rate. | + | |
- | With more than 30 mercenaries, | + | * Subtract 5 to determine a 75% success rate |
+ | * Add 2 to determine a 50% success rate | ||
+ | * Add 9 to determine a 25% success rate. | ||
- | === Next, your markers | + | With more than 30 mercenaries, |
+ | |||
+ | === Next, Your House Markers | ||
Ignore the 3 and 4-spots, and **__calculate for cards with 2 vassals or more__**. | Ignore the 3 and 4-spots, and **__calculate for cards with 2 vassals or more__**. | ||
- | * Subtract 2 to determine a 75% rate | + | * Subtract 2 to determine a 75% rate. |
- | * You've got a tad less than 50-50 shot at achieving | + | * Count at face value for a 50% rate. |
- | * Add 2 for a 25% kill rate. | + | * Add 2 for a 25% success |
Finally, add in your last expected kills for your single vassal markers at the rate you're looking for.. | Finally, add in your last expected kills for your single vassal markers at the rate you're looking for.. | ||
- | * count 1 for a 75% rate | + | * Count 1 for a 75% rate |
- | * 2 for a 50% rate | + | * Count 2 for a 50% rate |
- | * 3 for a 25% rate | + | * Count 3 for a 25% rate |
---- | ---- | ||
+ | Back to the [[Boards:: | ||
+ | Also [[Boards: | ||