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- | ====== Dice ====== | ||
- | ====Odds for Versus-Dice==== | ||
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- | A useful tool for calculating odds developed by [[wargear_personalities: | ||
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- | ====Estimating SimulGear Probabilities==== | ||
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- | As explained in the [[http:// | ||
- | >//How are dice different in SimulGear?// | ||
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- | The easiest way to understand SimulGear is to imagine that it rolls one 100-sided dice for each attacker and defender. | ||
- | Each border is assigned an Attacker and Defender Percentage. | ||
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- | Example: The border between two territories is set to 60% for Attacker and 75% for Defender. 10 units Attack to a territory with 8 units defending. | ||
- | * Ten (10) 100-sided dice are rolled for the Attacker. For every dice that is 40 or greater, one Defending unit is killed. | ||
- | * Eight (8) 100-sided dice for the Defender. For every dice that is 25 or greater, one Attacking unit is killed. (100 - 75% = 25) | ||
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- | >Note: The Attack % and Defend % is not a guaranteed kill % but instead an average kill %. In the example, the Attacker/ | ||
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- | The final note is important to keep in mind, as multiplying the number of attacking units by the Attack % will give you only an //expected value// (EV) for how many defending units you would eliminate. The EV tells you the average of all the attack outcomes if you replicated this attack thousands of times. The EV is useful for making a quick estimation of how many units you will need, at minimum, on a given attack or defense. However, | ||
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- | If you want to know this probability of success, you should calculate the cumulative probability using a binomial distribution function. There are tools that exist to run these for you, such as [[http:// | ||
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- | ==An Example== | ||
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- | {{ : | ||
- | Say that you are playing a SimulGear game with Attack % of 70 and Defend % of 80. You can place anywhere from 20 to 30 units in territory A. You know (or make an educated guess) that your opponent will defend territory B with 15 units. How many should you place in A to have a good chance (say >90%) of taking B? | ||
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- | Using EV, 15/.7 ~= 21. On average, if you attack with 21 units you'll eliminate 15 defenders and take the territory. Using the cumulative probability calculator, the probability of eliminating //at least// 15 defenders with 21 attackers is only 55% -- by no means a sure thing! If you want a >90% of success, you need to attack with at least 25 units. |