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general:dice_probabilities [2013/08/25 12:21] M57 |
general:dice_probabilities [2013/08/27 00:23] Ozyman |
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====== Dice ====== | ====== Dice ====== | ||
- | ====Odds for Versus-Dice==== | + | ====Odds for Turn-Based Games==== |
- | + | ||
- | A useful tool for calculating | + | [[http:// |
+ | |A website that allows you to calculate | ||
====Estimating SimulGear Probabilities==== | ====Estimating SimulGear Probabilities==== | ||
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Example: The border between two territories is set to 60% for Attacker and 75% for Defender. 10 units Attack to a territory with 8 units defending. | Example: The border between two territories is set to 60% for Attacker and 75% for Defender. 10 units Attack to a territory with 8 units defending. | ||
- | * Ten (10) 100-sided dice are rolled for the Attacker. For every dice that is 40 or greater, one Defender | + | * Ten (10) 100-sided dice are rolled for the Attacker. For every dice that is 40 or greater, one Defending |
* Eight (8) 100-sided dice for the Defender. For every dice that is 25 or greater, one Attacking unit is killed. (100 - 75% = 25) | * Eight (8) 100-sided dice for the Defender. For every dice that is 25 or greater, one Attacking unit is killed. (100 - 75% = 25) | ||
- | > | + | |
- | >Note: The Attack % and Defend % is not a guaranteed kill % but instead an average kill %. In the example, the Attacker/ | + | It is // |
The final note is important to keep in mind, as multiplying the number of attacking units by the Attack % will give you only an //expected value// (EV) for how many defending units you would eliminate. The EV tells you the average of all the attack outcomes if you replicated this attack thousands of times. The EV is useful for making a quick estimation of how many units you will need, at minimum, on a given attack or defense. However, | The final note is important to keep in mind, as multiplying the number of attacking units by the Attack % will give you only an //expected value// (EV) for how many defending units you would eliminate. The EV tells you the average of all the attack outcomes if you replicated this attack thousands of times. The EV is useful for making a quick estimation of how many units you will need, at minimum, on a given attack or defense. However, |