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Thu 19th Nov 2015 12:12 #1 / 8
How come it always seems the person winning has incredible luck? My luck charts always look like a fork in road, win or lose. ive had incredible starts and lost and had very bad luck, and vise versa.
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Thu 19th Nov 2015 12:56 #2 / 8
It makes sense that those with good luck would usually be the winner in a two player game (which I notice you play a significant portion of the time). In order for someone who has good luck to lose in a two player game they would have to have a terrible strategy...kind of like if you played a 3 year old.
In larger games I have seen people with horrendous luck pull out a win though. This one comes to mind: http://www.wargear.net/games/player/443502
If you want luck to play less of a factor in your games, I suggest branching out to larger games more often. And if you're interesting in climbing the ranks (which I think you are due to another post of yours) you will gain points much faster in larger games than in small ones.
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Thu 19th Nov 2015 14:34 #3 / 8
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AfroDaby wrote:
It makes sense that those with good luck would usually be the winner in a two player game (which I notice you play a significant portion of the time). In order for someone who has good luck to lose in a two player game they would have to have a terrible strategy...kind of like if you played a 3 year old.
In larger games I have seen people with horrendous luck pull out a win though. This one comes to mind: http://www.wargear.net/games/player/443502
If you want luck to play less of a factor in your games, I suggest branching out to larger games more often. And if you're interesting in climbing the ranks (which I think you are due to another post of yours) you will gain points much faster in larger games than in small ones.
I generally agree, but one person doesn't need terrible strategy to lose with good dice, but an imbalance between good and great can be enough as well. Look at berickf on his duel boards. Even if he has bad dice, you make one mistake and he'll still take you.
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Thu 19th Nov 2015 14:57 #4 / 8
That's a good point
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Thu 19th Nov 2015 16:32 #5 / 8
Could it also be because the scale on the luck graphs depends on the values of luck, so whether someones luck was +10 or +100 it would still look similar on a glance.
This of course doesn't even get into the normalization of luck for the length of games, that has also been discussed here in the past.
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Thu 19th Nov 2015 18:13 #6 / 8
"I shall pass this way but once, any good I can do, or kindness I can show; let me do it now. Let me not defer nor neglect it, for I shall not pass this way again." -Stephen Grellet
Conclusion:
It looks worse than it actually is, but luck plays a role in this game.
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Fri 27th Nov 2015 06:10 #7 / 8
The luck chart is not purely luck!
If you attack 3vs2 on a 6v6 dice, your chances of winning are higher. The luck chart only considers wins vs losses, but not the chances in a battle.
It may be that better players know how to use these chances better and therefore seem like they have more luck. This will esp be the case on boards with altered dice
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Fri 27th Nov 2015 06:37 #8 / 8
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IRsmart wrote:
The luck chart is not purely luck!
If you attack 3vs2 on a 6v6 dice, your chances of winning are higher. The luck chart only considers wins vs losses, but not the chances in a battle.
It may be that better players know how to use these chances better and therefore seem like they have more luck. This will esp be the case on boards with altered dice
I'm pretty sure the Luck stats algorithm is a bit more sophisticated than this, taking into account both the # of dice attacking and defending as well as the # of sides on all dice.
