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Tue 18th Jan 2011 14:07 #1 / 11
If someone has 6 cards, what is the probability that they hold two set to turn in?
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Tue 18th Jan 2011 15:06 #2 / 11All your base are belong to us
Assuming the cards are 18,18,18,2 he has a rough estimate of a 37% chance of having two sets to turn in.
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Tue 18th Jan 2011 20:14 #3 / 11
Thanks.
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Sat 22nd Jan 2011 22:28 #4 / 11
Never Start Vast Projects With Half Vast Ideas.
Seige07 wrote:
Assuming the cards are 18,18,18,2 he has a rough estimate of a 37% chance of having two sets to turn in.
With this distribution, it is 46.97% of the time, so on Day at the Races it is a roughly 50/50 chance to have the double turn in waiting for that sixth card.
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 12:14 #5 / 11
All your base are belong to us
Alpha, how'd you come up with that number? I know I rounded a lot of my numbers but it shouldn't be that far off.
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 22:37 #6 / 11
Never Start Vast Projects With Half Vast Ideas.
Distribution:
Not Set: (.5303)
AAAAAB: .0285
AAAABB: .0865
AAABBC: .4153
Set: (.4697)
AAAAAA: .0017
AAAABC: .0916
AAABBB: .0615
AABBCC: .1103
1 wild: .1948
2 wild: .0097AAAABC stands for any permutation of the letters, AAAABC, BBBBAC, CCCCAB, no order of cards issued taken into account.
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 22:59 #7 / 11
Of course it's also possible to have more than 2 Wilds as well, if the Card set ran out and a new one had begun
Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 23:43 #8 / 11
Never Start Vast Projects With Half Vast Ideas.
Yertle wrote:
Of course it's also possible to have more than 2 Wilds as well, if the Card set ran out and a new one had begun
Really, I thought it shuffled the used cards, it creates a new deck?
Of course the above is flawed anyway as it is only really good for the first six cards you get since after your first turn in the distribution changes, but we can all ignore that.
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 23:49 #9 / 11
Alpha wrote:
Yertle wrote:
Of course it's also possible to have more than 2 Wilds as well, if the Card set ran out and a new one had begun
Really, I thought it shuffled the used cards, it creates a new deck?
Yep.
(There's potential there could be no cards in a discard pile when a deck runs out.)
Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 23:55 #10 / 11
Never Start Vast Projects With Half Vast Ideas.
A simpler solution would be to just randomly dole out cards based on the proscribed distributions and then my calculations would have been easier.
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Tue 25th Jan 2011 10:14 #11 / 11
Alpha wrote:
A simpler solution would be to just randomly dole out cards based on the proscribed distributions and then my calculations would have been easier.
I believe that's how it was originally and with some changes (maybe the ability to change number of cards for each type?) it was changed to have actual Decks. Oh and I think another reason was that there could be 3 wilds (in an 18/18/18/2 setting) a lot sooner due to Randomness than with Decks, so I think Decks work better for that reason too.
Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
