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Sun 16th Jan 2011 16:23 #1 / 46Two Eyes for An Eye, The Jaw for A Tooth
If you have experienced really bad dice, report it here with all the details. Some math specialist will, I am sure, calculate the probability you had to do that. We will see if you had more chance to win at the national lotterry than doing that.
I think I remember once an all out attack with 13 armies against 1 ending with 12 armies lost. What was the probaility ?
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Sun 16th Jan 2011 18:08 #2 / 46BAO alternative:
..about 1 : 115,000
I.e., it's probably happened a few times on WarGear since it's inception.
13 v. 1 - You think, huh?
If it was 11 v. 1 it would be about 1: 25,000
https://sites.google.com/site/m57sengine/homeEdited Sun 16th Jan 18:16 [history]
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Mon 17th Jan 2011 14:29 #3 / 46
Not so much bad dice for me as unbelievably good dice for the winner. Check out from turn 1488 on. I tip my cap to the victor.
http://www.wargear.net/games/view/41613
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Mon 17th Jan 2011 15:12 #4 / 46
BAO alternative:
CK66 wrote: Not so much bad dice for me as unbelievably good dice for the winner. Check out from turn 1488 on. I tip my cap to the victor.
http://www.wargear.net/games/view/41613There looked to be a run in there where he lost 15 to take 29. Considering that the border was D5 vs. D6, that's pretty impressive.
https://sites.google.com/site/m57sengine/home
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Tue 18th Jan 2011 04:35 #5 / 46
Two Eyes for An Eye, The Jaw for A Tooth
M57 wrote:
..about 1 : 115,000
I.e., it's probably happened a few times on WarGear since it's inception.
13 v. 1 - You think, huh?
If it was 11 v. 1 it would be about 1: 25,000
Could be 12 ?
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Sat 22nd Jan 2011 22:38 #6 / 46
Never Start Vast Projects With Half Vast Ideas.
Toto wrote:
M57 wrote:
..about 1 : 115,000
I.e., it's probably happened a few times on WarGear since it's inception.
13 v. 1 - You think, huh?
If it was 11 v. 1 it would be about 1: 25,000
Could be 12 ?
M57 was right on this:
13v1 is about 1/200,000
12v1 is about 1/67,000
11v1 is about 1/23,000In the old world, I lost a game due to a failed elimination 12v1, so I am glad to see that it was an event that is bound to happen every now and again.
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Sat 22nd Jan 2011 22:45 #7 / 46
It would be cool to know the number of dice thrown in a day on WG, that could help show how often these crazy scenarios could/should be occurring.
Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
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Sat 22nd Jan 2011 23:06 #8 / 46
I'll try and offer a rough estimate.
Assume:
a) 7800 active players of which roughly 80% are standard (playing 10 games each) and 20% are Premium (playing 50 games each)
b) Each game takes roughly 15 turns to finish.
c) Each turn consists of 3 attacks with 3 v 2 dice.
So that leads to:
# Games = (7800*.8*10) + (7800*.2*50) = 140,400 games.
# Turns = 140,400 * 15 = 2,106,000 turns
# Attacks = 2,106,000 * 3 = 6,318,000
# Dice = 6,318,000 * 5 = 31,590,000 dice!
It's no wonder there have been several reports of crazy dice.
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Sat 22nd Jan 2011 23:13 #9 / 46
Perhaps using the Game ID number would be best, which looks to be at 45,907
So 45,900 * 15 * 3 = 2,065,500 ... still a big number!
Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
Edited Sat 22nd Jan 23:14 [history]
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Sat 22nd Jan 2011 23:45 #10 / 46
Ah good point about the game ID.
So with that number and the probabilities quoted above, there should be 10 occasions of 13 v 1, 30 occasions of 12 v 1, and 90 occasions of 11 v 1 losses.
Almost sounds like we haven't heard enough about bad dice luck :)
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Sun 23rd Jan 2011 10:02 #11 / 46
Two Eyes for An Eye, The Jaw for A Tooth
Tom should be able to provide easily these figures. I'm pretty sure you are far bellow the real figure.
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Sun 23rd Jan 2011 10:12 #12 / 46
BAO alternative:
As high as these numbers are, remember you have to back out the instances where they were not used in a 12 v 1 or more context. It would be hard to estimate that. On most boards, it only starts to happen mid-game and later when players start to blitz through defensive singles. Though this does happen often, my guess is it still only amounts to a small percentage of attacks in any given game.
https://sites.google.com/site/m57sengine/homeEdited Sun 23rd Jan 10:25 [history]
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 14:02 #13 / 46
All I know is my first game or two I lost an incredible amount of troops while my opponent swept thorugh them like butter
It's nice to know though how many times you can get whooped by the rotten dice.
Although I've once attacked 9 with 5 before and won.
Edited Mon 24th Jan 14:03 [history]
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Mon 24th Jan 2011 16:49 #14 / 46
BAO alternative:
shieldgenerator7 wrote:
I've once attacked 9 with 5 before and won.
That'll happen about 9% of the time.
https://sites.google.com/site/m57sengine/home
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Thu 27th Jan 2011 16:27 #15 / 46
Check this out pure unfiltered bullshit with dice http://www.wargear.net/games/view/46525
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Thu 27th Jan 2011 16:36 #16 / 46
Angusjustice wrote:
Check this out... http://www.wargear.net/games/view/46525
:P
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 aleksmat 82 (61 + 21) 36 (29 + 7) 17.74 (10.16 + 7.58) 2 Angusjustice 35 (7 + 28) 79 (21 + 58) -16.60 (-7.58 - 9.01) N Neutral 1 (0 + 1) 3 (0 + 3) -1.14 (0.00 - 1.14) Total 118 (68 + 50) 118 (50 + 68) 0 (2.57 - 2.57) Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
Edited Thu 27th Jan 16:37 [history]
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Thu 27th Jan 2011 16:39 #17 / 46
And just to see Luck isn't always against you: http://www.wargear.net/games/view/45948
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 Angusjustice 142 (85 + 57) 89 (49 + 40) 24.45 (11.63 + 12.82) 2 BTdubs 81 (40 + 41) 122 (57 + 65) -19.55 (-12.82 - 6.74) N Neutral 8 (0 + 8) 20 (0 + 20) -4.89 (0.00 - 4.89) Total 231 (125 + 106) 231 (106 + 125) 0 (-1.19 + 1.19) Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
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Fri 28th Jan 2011 09:31 #18 / 46
Luck Stats - 1; AngusJustice - 0
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Fri 28th Jan 2011 12:57 #19 / 46
I just lost 6 games in a row due to insanely terrible dice rolls. Games I was in VERY dominant position. So my ranking went from 1600+ to about 1300 in the last 2 weeks. It took me months to get it that high.
I'm so annoyed right now. Anyway here are some examples:
16 units lost to a 2.
9 units lost to a 2.
and BEST OF ALL 34 units vs 5. I LOST 28 units. so thats 29 units?? Wat the $%^& lol!! Seriously what??
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Fri 28th Jan 2011 15:18 #20 / 46
kinetix wrote:
I just lost 6 games in a row due to insanely terrible dice rolls.
Just to show off the Luck Stats a bit more (buy Premium! :D) Your last 6 finished games:
http://www.wargear.net/games/view/44156
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 razole2 25 (14 + 11) 16 (6 + 10) 4.45 (2.49 + 1.96) 2 AttilaTheHun 97 (40 + 57) 97 (36 + 61) -0.41 (-3.17 + 2.76) 3 JPHawk23 49 (26 + 23) 56 (28 + 28) -3.20 (-4.37 + 1.17) 4 Tesctassa II 107 (79 + 28) 83 (55 + 28) 5.46 (2.35 + 3.11) 5 kinetix 74 (37 + 37) 95 (35 + 60) -5.02 (-3.37 - 1.65) N Neutral 4 (0 + 4) 9 (0 + 9) -1.29 (0.00 - 1.29) Total 356 (196 + 160) 356 (160 + 196) 0 (-6.07 + 6.07) http://www.wargear.net/games/view/43046
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 kinetix 259 (169 + 90) 262 (134 + 128) -1.83 (-3.17 + 1.34) 2 drummer 88 (55 + 33) 77 (32 + 45) 7.48 (7.03 + 0.45) 3 saqer1410 21 (11 + 10) 36 (17 + 19) -4.74 (-3.19 - 1.56) 4 KrocK 162 (74 + 88) 159 (54 + 105) 4.98 (1.65 + 3.33) 5 e 203 (113 + 90) 199 (74 + 125) -5.88 (-1.39 - 4.49) N Neutral 0 (0 + 0) (0 + ) 0.00 (0.00 - 0.00) Total 733 (422 + 311) 733 (311 + 422) 0 (0.93 - 0.93) http://www.wargear.net/games/view/43209
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 dido1410 58 (30 + 28) 56 (14 + 42) 2.01 (4.50 - 2.48) 2 kinetix 73 (43 + 30) 79 (29 + 50) -2.89 (2.40 - 5.29) 3 Mladen92pn 133 (101 + 32) 129 (75 + 54) -4.18 (-2.81 - 1.37) 4 ChumpStain 131 (65 + 66) 124 (43 + 81) 6.72 (1.04 + 5.68) 5 e 59 (21 + 38) 66 (33 + 33) -1.67 (-9.33 + 7.66) N Neutral 0 (0 + 0) (0 + ) 0.00 (0.00 - 0.00) Total 454 (260 + 194) 454 (194 + 260) 0 (-4.21 + 4.21) http://www.wargear.net/games/view/45366
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 frankthetank 191 (104 + 87) 179 (79 + 100) 9.97 (0.71 + 9.26) 2 Terminatah 46 (26 + 20) 56 (18 + 38) -3.39 (0.98 - 4.37) 3 kinetix 80 (36 + 44) 82 (26 + 56) 2.77 (1.44 + 1.33) 4 hasala 149 (101 + 48) 142 (81 + 61) -6.35 (-6.82 + 0.47) N Neutral 5 (0 + 5) 12 (0 + 12) -3.01 (0.00 - 3.01) Total 471 (267 + 204) 471 (204 + 267) 0 (-3.69 + 3.69) http://www.wargear.net/games/view/45105
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 LOLRED 145 (106 + 39) 121 (80 + 41) 0.68 (-2.04 + 2.73) 2 Silent-Strike 87 (42 + 45) 84 (30 + 54) 3.47 (1.79 + 1.68) 3 duncano74 45 (23 + 22) 51 (26 + 25) -1.93 (-3.81 + 1.88) 4 ScottGomez 88 (45 + 43) 98 (38 + 60) -2.24 (-0.91 - 1.33) 5 kinetix 82 (39 + 43) 92 (35 + 57) -0.53 (-1.75 + 1.22) N Neutral 17 (0 + 17) 18 (0 + 18) 0.55 (0.00 + 0.55) Total 464 (255 + 209) 464 (209 + 255) 0 (-6.73 + 6.73) http://www.wargear.net/games/view/46195
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 Charles Khan 41 (17 + 24) 51 (19 + 32) -2.55 (-3.39 + 0.84) 2 RiskyBack 55 (44 + 11) 44 (41 + 3) 1.46 (-3.24 + 4.70) 3 Yertle 44 (19 + 25) 39 (17 + 22) 2.65 (-1.46 + 4.11) 4 kinetix 42 (14 + 28) 46 (11 + 35) -0.64 (0.57 - 1.21) N Neutral 0 (0 + 0) 2 (0 + 2) -0.92 (0.00 - 0.92) Total 182 (94 + 88) 182 (88 + 94) 0 (-7.52 + 7.52) So, you had some negative luck there, but not sure if I would label them "insanely terrible dice rolls".
Also, here's an extra in which you had positive luck (although not the most positive) and still won:
http://www.wargear.net/games/view/43983
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 Ardinos 73 (40 + 33) 89 (47 + 42) -7.95 (-8.65 + 0.70) 2 kinetix 96 (83 + 13) 68 (56 + 12) 3.45 (2.10 + 1.35) 3 fordin 47 (20 + 27) 49 (13 + 36) 2.43 (1.99 + 0.43) 4 WarGirl 60 (24 + 36) 53 (22 + 31) 7.14 (-0.93 + 8.07) 5 ecko 29 (9 + 20) 39 (5 + 34) -3.24 (0.73 - 3.97) N Neutral 14 (0 + 14) 21 (0 + 21) -1.82 (0.00 - 1.82) Total 319 (176 + 143) 319 (143 + 176) 0 (-4.77 + 4.77) So even luck can be overcome.
Last one just to show that you do have good rolls too:
http://www.wargear.net/games/view/42828
Luck Summary
# Player Kills Deaths Luck 1 kinetix 253 (138 + 115) 221 (91 + 130) 4.79 (-2.33 + 7.12) 2 Epstein 236 (154 + 82) 255 (125 + 130) -2.90 (-3.47 + 0.57) 3 Hunk 53 (19 + 34) 63 (23 + 40) -2.55 (-4.95 + 2.40) 4 smoke 62 (29 + 33) 65 (25 + 40) 0.67 (-1.66 + 2.32) N Neutral 0 (0 + 0) (0 + ) 0.00 (0.00 - 0.00) Total 604 (340 + 264) 604 (264 + 340) 0 (-12.41 + 12.41) Check out WarGear Gear at the WarGear Zazzle Store! "But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first." Matthew 19:30 - Good strategy for life and WarGear!
Edited Fri 28th Jan 15:55 [history]
