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general:luck_stats [2017/11/05 10:36]
M57 [How Unlucky Is a Luck Stat of -3?] 		general:luck_stats [2022/09/15 01:05] (current)
Ozyman [Relevant forum threads]
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 Given the same number of opportunities, both of the above events will happen about 4% of the time. Clearly, a Luck Stat of -3 can be just as //unlikely//, and therefore just as unlucky as Luck Stat of -21. Given the same number of opportunities, both of the above events will happen about 4% of the time. Clearly, a Luck Stat of -3 can be just as //unlikely//, and therefore just as unlucky as Luck Stat of -21.
  
-**Case 3** - Yet, if you were to win that stack of 48 (from Case 2), and end up with 18 units to spare and a luck stat of -3, you probably wouldn't blink. In fact, you probably wouldn't consider it unlucky at all - and you would be right. +**Case 3** - If you were to win that stack of 48 (from Case 2), and ended up with 18 units to spare, you probably wouldn't blink. You might even be tempted to think you had better than average luck. Yet, your Luck stat would be -3 and fall right in the middle of the 15-21 bin of the histogram below.
-Whereas after winning you are likely to end up with exactly 18 units ~3.7% of the time, you are only likely to end up with the "central tendency" of 21 units only ~4.1% of the time, and a good 30% of the time you will end up winning with somewhere between 18 and 25 units left over. +
  
 {{ :general:60_v_48_binned.png |}} {{ :general:60_v_48_binned.png |}}
  
-The above histogram suggests that you will win and end up with between 15 and 28 (Luck Stats from -6 to +7) units about half the time when attacking a stack of 48 units with a stack of 60 units. In fact, to end up with an overall Luck Stat of -3 in this type of battle scenario could hardly be seen as being anything other than pretty average luck.+The above histogram suggests that you will win and end up with between 15 and 28 (Luck Stats from -6 to +7) units more than half the time when attacking a stack of 48 units with a stack of 60 units. In fact, to end up with an overall Luck Stat of -3 in this type of battle scenario could hardly be considered as being anything other than pretty average luck.
  
 //(The probabilities given for the "cases" used in this discussion were derived from various (and typical) samples of 20,000 simulations each using Ozyman's WarGear Simulator. //(The probabilities given for the "cases" used in this discussion were derived from various (and typical) samples of 20,000 simulations each using Ozyman's WarGear Simulator.
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   * http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/2173/Luck_Cumulative_Chart_Wargear_Warfare_1_v_1_games_SquintGnome   * http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/2173/Luck_Cumulative_Chart_Wargear_Warfare_1_v_1_games_SquintGnome
   * http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/3055p1/How_unlucky   * http://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/3055p1/How_unlucky
 +  * https://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/167p1/Ive_seen_enoughthe_RandomLuck_Talk
 +  * https://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/1324p1/Bad_dice_support_group
 +  * https://www.wargear.net/forum/showthread/3413/Luck_in_Risk
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general/luck_stats.1509896165.txt.gz · Last modified: 2017/11/05 10:36 by M57

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