I searched for the other bad beat page, but it looks deleted.  So here's a new one. 

I had this! ...and the friggin' dice said:  'No.'   (And my opponent did good too)

http://www.wargear.net/games/player/520895 ;

Just had a turn where attacking 3v1 (d6, no attack/defend advantage) had one stretch of 2 kills vs 10 losses. The defender rolled the following on Crystal Caves:

6, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1  then followed with 5, 5, 5, 6, 4.  I won where he rolled 1 and later 4.

So, the defender averaged 5.0 over those 12 rolls.

I wonder what the most consecutive singleton 6 rolls on d6 is?

ratsy wrote:

I searched for the other bad beat page, but it looks deleted.  So here's a new one. 

I had this! ...and the friggin' dice said:  'No.'   (And my opponent did good too)

http://www.wargear.net/games/player/520895 ;;

History is not available on this board so we can't appreciate your pain.

And thanks for the quote -

Thingol wrote:

Just had a turn where attacking 3v1 (d6, no attack/defend advantage) had one stretch of 2 kills vs 10 losses. The defender rolled the following on Crystal Caves:

6, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1  then followed with 5, 5, 5, 6, 4.  I won where he rolled 1 and later 4.

So, the defender averaged 5.0 over those 12 rolls.

I wonder what the most consecutive singleton 6 rolls on d6 is?

I'm bad at statistics (thats why I went into Chemistry), but I'm sure somebody here can figure out the probability of 5-20 (or whatever) consecutive 6's. More than 5 in a row feels to me like its getting into ridiculous luck territory.

Would the odds be calculated as the inverse of simply 6 to the n-1 power (where n=the number of consecutive 6's) or is that too simple a formula?

(1/6)^n

Thus far in the game, I'm 82-and-76 in 3v1 attacks (no advantage/disadvantage on attack/defense border mods). I'm actually still alive in the game by some miracle.  In 158 rolls, I wonder what the 'average' win count would be?

Ok. Just lost eight in a row to a singleton. 6 sided vs 6 sided

Babbalouie rolled 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 2

I hate that. Losing any more than 2 or 3 to a singleton just sucks.

So, it looks like, out of 158 rolls 3v1, the attacker can expect to win 103 to 105 times.

Mad Bomber wrote: Babbalouie rolled 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 2

That's nasty, but rolling five 6's in a row is only a 1 in 7,776 proposition.  That's probably happened a more than just a few times on this site.  As for the 5 6 5 we have to factor in the probability that you wouldn't roll a 6 with three dice on two of those rounds.  Still, I'm going to guess that the probability closes in on 1 in 100,000.  Time to play the lottery if you believe the odds gods owe you one.

So I'm clearly the worst player ever, and this is undeniable proof:

http://www.wargear.net/games/view/528825

I've got +43 luck on Hawaii and these guys are killing me. 

Ok.....just lost nine in a row to a singleton.....5 vs 6......so I guess it's "better" than 6 vs 6....

i just had 12 to try to take out two singletons...didn't make it.

An amazingly lucky attack (lose 4, kill 16) followed by an unlucky attack (lose 25, kill 15), and then I take the crown with just 2 units... which of course fail to take the rose. Beginning c. 1208.

http://www.wargear.net/games/view/532285

What are the odds on winning a d6 vs d4 roll? It's one unit vs one unit. Thus far, I'm 5-and-9 in said rolls, including twice losing 3-in-a-row.

Is that a 58% of winning?

Yes, 58% but that's one roll of the dice.  I did a 9d6 v 5d4 simulation of Ozyman's calculator and that came out to about 0.4% but that simulator throws 3v2 dice whenever possible, so it's gotta happen more often than that.   I don't know how to go about figuring this one out.  With a differential of 4 units, it's tempting to say that it's based on the the extra number of losses required or .52^4= 3%, but that's just the probability of losing 4 in a row. Besides, losing 9v5 has got to happen more often than losing 100v96 with those dice mods.

Thingol wrote: What are the odds on winning a d6 vs d4 roll? It's one unit vs one unit. Thus far, I'm 5-and-9 in said rolls, including twice losing 3-in-a-row.

I agree with Korrum.

There are 24 possible outcomes and you win 14 of them.  14 / 24 = 58.33%.  This assumes that the defender wins ties.

SquintGnome wrote:

Thingol wrote: What are the odds on winning a d6 vs d4 roll? It's one unit vs one unit. Thus far, I'm 5-and-9 in said rolls, including twice losing 3-in-a-row.

I agree with Korrum.

There are 24 possible outcomes and you win 14 of them.  14 / 24 = 58.33%.  This assumes that the defender wins ties.

 

Right, but I assumed Thingol knew that.  I was considering the tougher question.. "What is the probability of going 5-9 rolling d6 v d4?"  If you ran simulations and included all outcomes of remaining units, I think it would be a normal distribution curve, but I'm not sure.