Do you have a target # or % in mind, like 55 in total against the crown ..or a 60% shot? ..or do you tend to make your claim as soon as you feel someone else is likely to if you don't? How do you evaluate your chances?  For instance, what kind of holdings do you think you need to have a 50% likelihood of winning?

No specific numbers here. Rarely do I do an exact count. Mostly a fear ratio. When I'm more afraid someone else taking it than I'm worried of shooting and failing that's when I go.  Same for Ren Wars.

Oh, and for good or ill that fear factor increases with Cona or IRsmart in the game. 

I pretty much always go for an exact count and I look at the quality of my marker holdings. With average holdings (~25 on the mercenaries, only 2 or 3 treys and at least one 9-spot on the markers), I like to see over 50 in total to feel like I have a better than 50/50 shot.  Then it's all about fear factor.  With no fear, I'll wait until I'm at 60+.  With high fear I'll go with as little as 40 - and even less if I'm peeing in my pants.  I think I've stolen a game with as little as 38.  I think it was from you INAT ;P

 I really should take a look at some of the games INAT, CC and IR have played and take an informal poll of what they go with.  My sense is that they have less fear and go for it with just a few more armies than I on average.  With that in mind I think my Achilles heal is that I over-estimate the likelihood that my opponents with go for it and make it.  I picture them going for it with 50 and making it, thus I tend to pull the trigger a bit too early.  What I really should be looking for is 55+ OR 50 - and they go for it and MISS.

Which begs the question, How often do you guys swing and miss?  I swear its got to be close to 1/2 the time for me.

You can always use a calculator.

http://prestopnik.com/wargear/

williamthewizard wrote:

You can always use a calculator.

http://prestopnik.com/wargear/

Yeah - but going out in Roses or Ren Wars (this thread was started pre-Ren Wars I think), is more complicated than simply counting up your mercenaries and markers/houses and running them off on a calculator against the stack on the crown. They all have pretty widely varying efficiencies. It's not as simple as adding 'em up to figure out the total probability.   Not to mention, there's the whole, "how close is the nearest suitor?" calculus that comes into play.

Which begs the question, How often do you guys swing and miss?  I swear its got to be close to 1/2 the time for me.

I think mine's closer 1/3 than 1/2.  But, if in 4-6 player games if you're in a position to swing almost every time 50/50 it's still good numbers.

itsnotatumor wrote:

Which begs the question, How often do you guys swing and miss?  I swear its got to be close to 1/2 the time for me.

I think mine's closer 1/3 than 1/2.  But, if in 4-6 player games if you're in a position to swing almost every time 50/50 it's still good numbers.

So what do you think is a reasonable 50/50 proposition?

I'm going to say 25 mercs + 9, 6, 6, 3, 3 = 52

Would be interested in any updated thoughts? I am new to Roses and enjoying my first game. The end game remains a mystery.

Twobeard wrote:

Would be interested in any updated thoughts? I am new to Roses and enjoying my first game. The end game remains a mystery.

One of the ways to solve "mysteries" on maps here is to take a look at the "History" of a few finished games for the map in question, sort thru your "wait, wut" moments before they happen to you in game circumstances.  If you have the time it's an excellent tool to learn a map. 

hootz72 wrote:

Twobeard wrote:

Would be interested in any updated thoughts? I am new to Roses and enjoying my first game. The end game remains a mystery.

One of the ways to solve "mysteries" on maps here is to take a look at the "History" of a few finished games for the map in question, sort thru your "wait, wut" moments before they happen to you in game circumstances.  If you have the time it's an excellent tool to learn a map. 

That is a great tip. Thanks, Hootz.

Twobeard wrote:

Would be interested in any updated thoughts? I am new to Roses and enjoying my first game. The end game remains a mystery.

Don't know if you've checked this out already, but I posted some advice and analysis in the wiki..

http://www.wargear.net/wiki/doku.php?id=boards:war_of_the_roses:strategies_and_tips

http://www.wargear.net/wiki/doku.php?id=boards:war_of_the_roses:end_game_analysis_and_probabilities