I was just looking at the history of a recent tournament game and noticed that the winner was able to go out with what can at best be described as a poor 35.  Poor because most of the attacking houses were small, and he only had a contingent of 14 mercenaries.  A quick look at his luck stats and accompanying LS chart showed that his luck went through the roof - going from what looks like about +6 or 7 to +15 during the assault of the crown - so he definitely needed the luck to pull it off.

http://www.wargear.net/games/player/327394

BTW, this looked to be a great game - I was watching it and even commented during the game because I thought everyone had a shot right to the end.  Congrats to robbobc for pulling off the win.

I'm curious to know if anyone has been able to go out with similar numbers in the past.  I do see that more and more people try with small numbers, including the board's top player, IRsmart, which surprises me because you would think that after a failed attempt, the likelihood that you can rebound from having lost tempo (especially considering that you were relatively weak when you made the attempt) is pretty low.

Thoughts? Observations? Comments?  How many do you prefer to go out with? Do you consider the quality of your houses?

Risk vs. Reward.  Bigger risk, bigger payoff. 

I might consider going at around 50, which is probably about a 75% chance of winning, maybe less if I was getting desperate.  To account for 'weak' houses I would probably subtract from my total number of armies about 1.5*(Number of houses), this is because you can't attack with the last army of each house and once you get below 4 your odds get worse.

SquintGnome wrote:

I might consider going at around 50, which is probably about a 75% chance of winning, maybe less if I was getting desperate.  To account for 'weak' houses I would probably subtract from my total number of armies about 1.5*(Number of houses), this is because you can't attack with the last army of each house and once you get below 4 your odds get worse.

As I'm pretty sure you know, all houses hold 1 more unit than the number stated on the marker.  E.g., Holland may say 6 on the card, but it holds 7 units.  But you are right, once down to 3 a house is weaker.  I think it's even worse than you account for, but 1.5 is probably not far off.  And while I agree that 50 is a good number to shoot for, I'm finding more and more reasons to go for it with less, especially in games where I'm behind, which is most of them.

M57 wrote:

I was just looking at the history of a recent tournament game and noticed that the winner was able to go out with what can at best be described as a poor 35.  Poor because most of the attacking houses were small, and he only had a contingent of 14 mercenaries.  A quick look at his luck stats and accompanying LS chart showed that his luck went through the roof - going from what looks like about +6 or 7 to +15 during the assault of the crown - so he definitely needed the luck to pull it off.

http://www.wargear.net/games/player/327394

BTW, this looked to be a great game - I was watching it and even commented during the game because I thought everyone had a shot right to the end.  Congrats to robbobc for pulling off the win.

I'm curious to know if anyone has been able to go out with similar numbers in the past.  I do see that more and more people try with small numbers, including the board's top player, IRsmart, which surprises me because you would think that after a failed attempt, the likelihood that you can rebound from having lost tempo (especially considering that you were relatively weak when you made the attempt) is pretty low.

Thoughts? Observations? Comments?  How many do you prefer to go out with? Do you consider the quality of your houses?

In general I will try to go out if I have 40/45 if I feel there's a chance an opponent may try and win before I have another chance. This is especially the case, if 1 I have a chance to try again the rest round or 2. do not loose much momentum for the coming round(s).

It is not just about the required number to go out on, but also how long do you wait and give your opponents the chance to go for it. In my opinion too many players wait to long and have the game taken from with under their noses.

IRsmart wrote:

In general I will try to go out if I have 40/45 if I feel there's a chance an opponent may try and win before I have another chance. This is especially the case, if 1 I have a chance to try again the rest round or 2. do not loose much momentum for the coming round(s).

It is not just about the required number to go out on, but also how long do you wait and give your opponents the chance to go for it. In my opinion too many players wait to long and have the game taken from with under their noses.

I agree ..more and more, I'm finding myself feeling the need to go for it with under 50.  I.e., probably less than a 50% chance of succeeding.  In games with more than 3 or 4 players, it seems the risk is worth it - and like you say, there's always the chance that you'll get another shot.

Why does the crown regenerate after an unsuccessful attack? It would seem to be more historically relevant with the theme of the board that if one player cripples the last defences of the crown it should be easier for the next player to mop up. I don't know if this would improve the play or not, but it would make for different end-game - maybe good for a scenario?

Xrayjay wrote:

Why does the crown regenerate after an unsuccessful attack? It would seem to be more historically relevant with the theme of the board that if one player cripples the last defences of the crown it should be easier for the next player to mop up. I don't know if this would improve the play or not, but it would make for different end-game - maybe good for a scenario?

Yeah -- I've considered this - The problem with the idea (in my opinion) is that any reasonable failing attempt on the crown all but guarantees the win for whoever is next.  Restocking the crown at least levels the playing field.

You are right in one sense that after putting down a revolt the garrison protecting the crown is weaker, but the opposite could also be argued, that after putting down a revolt, the crown is perceived as strong - the houses that were victorious in supported the the crown (i.e., everyone else playing the game) are there to protect it ..from the next suitor.

IRsmart wrote:

In general I will try to go out if I have 40/45 if I feel there's a chance an opponent may try and win before I have another chance. This is especially the case, if 1 I have a chance to try again the rest round or 2. do not loose much momentum for the coming round(s).

It is not just about the required number to go out on, but also how long do you wait and give your opponents the chance to go for it. In my opinion too many players wait to long and have the game taken from with under their noses.

+1